近日，世界最大投資銀行之一美國高盛集團稱，美聯儲想在不引發經濟衰退的情況下遏制通貨膨脹，難度非常大。高盛經濟學家預測，美國經濟今後兩年間衰退的幾率為35%。

A US 5 dollar note is seen in this illustration photo June 1, 2017. [Photo/Agencies]

There is a real chance that the US economy is going to suffer a recession or “hard landing” in the next two years, according to the economic team at Goldman Sachs.

美國高盛集團經濟團隊表示，未來兩年，美國經濟很有可能陷入衰退或“硬着陸”。

The bank’s economists see the odds of a recession at about 15% in the next 12 months, with the odds rising to 35% over the next 24 months.

該投資銀行經濟學家認為，未來一年美國經濟衰退的可能性約為15%，而在未來兩年美國經濟衰退的可能性将上升至35%。

With inflation above 8% for the first time in forty years, Fed officials say they are laser focused on getting interest rates up.

由于美國通貨膨脹率40年來首次超過8%，美聯儲官員表示正在加息對抗通脹。

One reason recession odds are so low for the next 12 months is that the Fed benchmark rate is so low — in a range of 0.25% – 0.5%. The US central bank ‘s policy rate won’t be up to a “neutral level” that no longer boosts inflation until the end of the year. Moving rates into “restrictive” territory – generally seen as above 2.5% — won’t happen until 2023.

未來12個月美國經濟發生衰退的可能性僅為15%，原因之一是美聯儲的基準利率很低，在0.25％-0.5％的範圍内。美聯儲的政策利率在今年年底前不會達到不再推高通脹的“中性水平”。利率要到2023年才會進入“限制性”區間（通常被認為高于2.5％）。

The Fed wants to try to engineer a soft landing, raising rates enough to cool inflation but not so much as to damage the labor market.

美聯儲希望設法實現經濟軟着陸，加息實現通脹降溫，但又不至于破壞勞動力市場。

Last week, New York Fed President John Williams said achieving a soft landing would not be easy.

上周，紐約聯邦儲備銀行行長約翰·威廉姆斯表示，實現經濟軟着陸并非易事。

On Monday, William Dudley, his predecessor at the helm of the New York Fed, said a hard landing was inevitable.

前紐約聯邦儲備銀行掌門人威廉·達德利4月18日也表示，美國經濟硬着陸是不可避免的。

In their note to clients, Goldman said it didn’t believe a recession was inevitable.

高盛在給客戶的報告中稱，他們不認為美國經濟衰退是不可避免的。

The Fed will benefit by post-covid normalizations in labor supply and durable goods prices. More people coming back into the workforce will cool off wages and with the pandemic easing, households are expected to spend more on vacations and other services.

美聯儲将從後疫情時代勞動力供應和耐用品價格的正常化中受益。更多人重返工作崗位将使工資下降，随着疫情緩解，預計家庭的度假和其他服務支出将會增加。

The main goal of the Fed’s planned rate hikes is to slow wage growth from its recent 5%-6% pace to at least 4%-4.5%, Goldman said. That would help cool inflation close to the Fed’s 2% target in 2023 and 2024.

高盛表示，美聯儲計劃加息的主要目标是将工資增速從最近的5％-6％放緩至至少4％-4.5％。這将有助于冷卻通脹，使其接近美聯儲2023年和2024年通脹率2%的目标。

The current strong economic momentum also limits the risk of a recession in the near-term, Goldman said.

該機構稱，目前強勁的經濟動能也限制了近期出現衰退的風險。

But Goldman said that it expects the Fed to raise its benchmark rate up to range of 3- 3.25% before they are able to get inflation under control. This is what raises the odds of a recession, the firm said.

但高盛預測，美聯儲要把基準利率提高到3-3.25%的範圍才能對抗通貨膨脹。這會增加經濟衰退的可能性。

來源：Market Watch

編輯：董靜

來源：中國日報網

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